Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) released today its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for November showing what a healthy national housing market should look like taking into account recent trends, key housing indicators and the shifting demographic patterns that will define a new and realistic trajectory over the next five years. A healthy housing market should have activity below the levels recorded during the peaks of the prior decade.
Outlook Highlights. What a healthy housing market should look like:
- Housing starts increasing to about 1.7 to 1.8 million dwellings per year compared with 2.1 million in 2005.
- Home sales increasing to about 5 percent of the housing stock, or about 6.5 to 7.0 million homes per year, compared with sales of 7 percent of the stock in 2005.
- U.S. house price appreciation rising gradually to about 3 percent per year compared to 11 percent of 2005.
- Vacancy rates easing further to about 1.7 percent on for-sale homes and 8 percent for rental homes, down from peaks of about 3 percent in 2008 and 11 percent in 2009, respectively.
- Serious delinquency rates nearing 2 percent, down from a peak of 9.5 percent in early 2010.
A short preview video and the complete October 2012 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here – http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/tab_outlook.html.
Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic and housing and mortgage market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.