CEO Confidence Hits All-Time Low, The Conference Board Reports
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, which had posted a slight increase in the third quarter, declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Measure currently stands at 24, down from 40 in the third quarter (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses). The survey includes about 100 business leaders in a wide range of industries.
CEO Confidence is at the lowest level ever recorded since the survey was first conducted in the second quarter of 1976. And, this is only the second time the Measure has fallen below 30. The last time was during the second quarter of 1980, when it stood at 29.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “The erosion in CEO confidence is a reflection of the rapid and severe deterioration in economic conditions experienced in the final months of 2008. Looking ahead, CEOs remain extremely pessimistic about overall economic prospects in the first half of 2009.”
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions turned even more pessimistic. Currently, none say conditions have improved, compared to 6 percent last quarter. In assessing their own industries, business leaders were equally as pessimistic. Only 1 percent claim conditions are better, down from 7 percent in the previous quarter.
Looking ahead six months, the outlook remains negative. Currently, about 11 percent of business leaders expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months, down from approximately 20 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries were also pessimistic. Only 12 percent of CEOs anticipate an improvement in the months ahead, down from 17 percent last quarter.
Inflation Outlook: Moderate Price Increases Expected in 2009
The majority of chief executives expect changes in their firms’ selling prices in 2009, with just 10 percent anticipating price increases in excess of 10 percent. On average, firms plan to hike prices by 1.0 percent, lower than last year’s expectation of 3.2 percent. Some 23 percent plan decreases and 21 percent foresee no change.
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